May 23, 2020

Scientists predict exact date coronavirus will end in UK with no deaths a day ‘by June’ – Mirror Online

Scientists predict exact date coronavirus will…

Scientists have predicted that the UK will be free of coronavirus by September.

Researchers in Singapore have used complex modelling to determine the exact date that the crisis can be declared over in countries around the world.

Using data-driven estimates, they say that by September 30 the deadly bug will no longer be present in Britain, the Daily Star reports.

This puts the UK ahead of the US, which will not be free of coronavirus until November 11.

However, Italy and Singapore are set to stamp out the disease first, where the crisis is expected to recede by August 12 and July 19 respectively.

Meanwhile, a leading professor at Oxford University has forecast that the UK’s declining death rates could reach the stage of no fatalities being recorded on some days by the end of June.

For the latest on the coronavirus pandemic, read our liveblog here

Scientists say the UK could be free of Covid-19 by autumn

Reaching zero cases means that the UK will be able to move to Level One in the Government’s new coronavirus alert system, which would mean no social distancing measures are required.

The UK is currently at stage four in the alert system, meaning there is high transmission of Covid-19.

However, the Singapore University of Technology innovation lab says the prediction is “uncertain” and can change with time.

The date is also vulnerable to new surges of infections caused by easing lockdown measures and people breaching the rules.

A spokesman for The Singapore University of Technology said: “The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries.

The modelling predicts when the virus will recede from countries around the world
Reaching zero cases would allow the UK to lift social distancing measures

“Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution.

“Over-optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.”

Separate modelling carried out in Washington and in Oxford has predicted that the UK could first see a 24-hour period with zero deaths from coronavirus by June.

However, it is expected that there will be “sporadic up and downs” for several weeks afterwards.

Professor Carl Heneghan, of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University told The Sun: “I think by the end of June we’ll be looking at the data and finding it difficult to find people with this illness, if the current trends continue in the deaths.

“But we will continue to have these sporadic up and downs for about four to six weeks.”

It comes after the number of Covid-19 patients to die in the UK rose today by 351 to 36,393, although that rise is far lower than the daily death tolls of over 1,000 recorded in April.

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Coronavirus outbreak

Of the latest confirmed fatalities, 121 occurred in hospitals in England, 24 in Scotland, seven in Wales and three in Northern Ireland.

The youngest victim in England was 41, health bosses confirmed, while three of the 121 had no known underlying health condition.

A further 3,287 people were confirmed to have the virus, the Department of Health and Social Care said, bringing the total number of cases to 254,195 since the start of the pandemic.

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